Don't Be Surprised By Another Upset From Tuberville

Cincinnati hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 1897. That’s right, it’s been over 100 years; it’s not a typo. Their most recent matchup in 2006 ended in a 37-7 Buckeyes victory, extending the overall series record to 13-2 in Ohio State’s favor.

But this year, all of that could change.

In 2007, now Cincinnati head coach Tommy Tuberville and the Auburn Tigers started the season 2-2, falling well short of the expectations set for them in the preseason. Their fifth game was a road trip to Gainesville to take on the fourth-ranked Florida Gators.

Florida was fresh off a national championship, Tim Tebow was already carving out his place in college football history, and even without all of that hype, The Swamp is still a very difficult place to play. Needless to say, Auburn was a heavy underdog.

And that’s just where Tuberville loves to be.

Long story short, at the end of a thrilling game that turned Auburn’s season around, freshman kicker Wes Byrum booted in the first of many game-winning field goals to knock off the Gators in front of their home crowd, 20-17.

Just another day at work for Tuberville and his Tigers, one of the many examples of his uncanny knack for winning the big games.

And that, ladies and gents, is why I have a bold prediction to make: Tommy Tuberville and the Cincinnati Bearcats will beat the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday in Columbus.

These high-stakes games as the underdog are the situations Tommy Tuberville lives for and thrives in.

In his 18 seasons as a head coach, Tuberville has coached 44 games matched up against a ranked opponent while his team is not ranked. He was won 14 of them.

I know that doesn’t sound like a very impressive stat. In fact, it’s only a win percentage of 31.8, nothing that pops out at you when you read it. But it should.

Think about all of the games that have been played between a ranked team and an unranked team in the past 18 seasons. Of all of those games, how many times do you think the unranked team came out on top? My guess is not very often.

If it happened all the time, it wouldn’t be called an upset.

So the fact that Tuberville statistically has a 31 percent chance of beating you if you’re ranked should be considered more astounding than it is.

Of the 14 games he has won against ranked opponents as an unranked team, eight of those wins came on the road. Nine of them were against Top-10 teams, including a 23-20 home upset of first-ranked Florida in 2001, during his time at Auburn.

Now let’s look at how Ohio State factors into all of this.

Despite what some might think after their 66-0 blanking of Kent State two weekends ago, the Buckeyes are not the team we thought they were. After Heisman hopeful quarterback Braxton Miller went down with a season-ending shoulder injury, Ohio State came out of the gate a bit sluggish.

They struggled with a pesky Navy team, outlasting the Midshipmen in a 34-17 win. And then, in week two, they were exposed.

An offensively challenged Virginia Tech squad marched right into Columbus and walked out with a 35-21 win. Backup quarterback J.T. Barrett of the Buckeyes was terribly inefficient (9/29, 219 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions) and only converted four out of 16 third downs.

His last interception was returned for the game-sealing touchdown in the game’s final minute, and it showed some true weaknesses for Ohio State.

The Buckeyes are definitely missing their senior quarterback, make no mistake. He is a game-changer, and Ohio State could’ve possibly pulled away from Virginia Tech had he been playing. But he wouldn’t have had much help from a defense that gave up big plays to very inconsistent and highly turnover prone Hokies offense.

And don’t let the numbers from their last game fool you. Anyone could beat Kent State, and I would have been shocked if Ohio State had performed any worse than they did in that game.

There’s a reason Ohio State went from fifth in the AP Poll after that week to 22^nd.

I believe the real Ohio State Buckeyes are the ones we all saw against Virginia Tech and Navy. And those are Buckeyes that Tommy Tuberville can beat.

I would say that it doesn’t matter that the game is on Ohio State’s home turf and that they’re ranked, but I’d be lying to you. That’s actually the thing that could end up mattering the most.

Because no matter how many games Tommy Tuberville might lose that he shouldn’t, he will always deliver at least one signature win each year.

He will always win games that he shouldn’t.

His Bearcats are 2-0, with a chance to make a statement to the college football world. It would be a huge win, one that many people probably don’t think he can pull off.

And that’s just the way he likes it.