Sometimes First Opinions Really Are Valid

Before the 2014 season started, I thought that Texas A&M would struggle to find itself again.

After the parade of media attention following Johnny Manziel’s every ill-conceived decision finally left town, I wondered how the Aggies would fare without such a dynamic playmaker and his favorite receiver.

Surely not better, I thought.

Then 52-28 happened. Ranked 21^st in the preseason polls, Texas A&M looked like national championship contenders as they thrashed ninth-ranked South Carolina in Columbia.

Sophomore Kenny Hill became an immediate Heisman candidate with his record-breaking 511 yards in his first game as a starter, and the Aggies’ offense looked unstoppable, rolling up 680 total yards and a whopping 39 first downs.

They leap-frogged all the way to the top ten, replacing South Carolina as the nation’s ninth-best team. A couple of voters even gave A&M the nod as the number one team.

Texas A&M looked like they were going to be just fine with Johnny Football.

And then the SEC West happened. We discovered along with Kevin Sumlin that not only can you not judge a book by its cover, but you can’t judge it by its first page either.

You have to let the rest of the story unfold.

Unfold it has, and here we are in week nine, with Texas A&M out of the top 25 for the first time in two years.

A brutal three-game SEC West stretch spun A&M into a nosedive that culminated in a 59-0 obliteration at the hands of an angry Alabama team, and sent the Aggies home licking their wounds and searching for answers.

In three straight games against division opponents, Texas A&M has been dominated on both sides of the ball. The offense from week one that was comparable to the best college football has ever seen wasn’t able to save the Aggies from its awful defense.

Against both Mississippi schools, A&M put up good numbers (526 yards against Mississippi State, 455 against Ole Miss), but they were deceiving. Most of the yards came in the fourth quarter, when each game was already well in hand.

In those two games, Kenny Hill threw five interceptions to go along with his six touchdowns. He and the offense could just never get it going until it was too late.

Then in Tuscaloosa, the wheels fell off. Coming off of those back-to-back bruising losses, getting beaten up on both fronts, Texas A&M never had a chance against an Alabama team that was ready to reinsert itself back in the playoff discussion.

The Aggies mustered only 172 total yards, gave up 602 to Alabama, and allowed the Crimson Tide to score on every one of its seven first half possessions while crossing the 50-yard line themselves on twice the entire game.

Texas A&M looked completely overwhelmed and outclassed in every way by Alabama, and their pitiful performance raised the question as to how good the Aggies really are.

It’s not time to press the panic in College Station, yet. But there are some things about this team that need to be cleared up.

Understand, Texas A&M is still a very talented football team. Kevin Sumlin has been dominating the recruiting trail in Texas, and has reeled in tons of top recruits and future stars.

But this just wasn’t the year to lose a Heisman-winning quarterback.

With the sudden emergence Mississippi’s twin towers to compete with already powerful Alabama and Auburn, Texas A&M could’ve used the potent ability of Johnny Football.

Arkansas is on the rise, and LSU has appeared lost at times, but is still as talented as any team in the country. They could be the only other West team the Aggies beat this season.

But in this year’s SEC West, no win is guaranteed. In fact, they’re far from it.

Kenny Hill will have to curb his struggles against the aggression of SEC West defenses. In his four games against division competition, Hill has thrown at least one interception, multiple picks in two of them.

When it has mattered most, Hill has been unable to replicate his success against South Carolina.

It turns out those of us who thought that A&M would take a step back after losing Manziel are looking slightly smarter now than we were seven weeks ago.

And I don’t think we were unjustified in our thinking back then, either.

In 2013, Texas A&M fielded the SEC’s worst defense, giving up 476 total yards and 32 points per game, good for last in the conference in both categories.

If it wasn’t for Johnny Manziel and Kevin Sumlin’s explosive offense, the Aggies could very well have finished with only six wins the past two seasons. Their ability to outscore anyone in the country outweighed their crippling inability to stop any offense.

It was like holding up a tissue to stop a rock that’s flying toward your face. Good luck with that.

And as it was, Sumlin and his staff didn’t appear to have made any drastic coaching or personnel changes to that same defense; in fact, they lost a couple of key contributors who were difficult to replace.

So that same defense that nearly lost the Aggies quite a few games was returning exactly the same or slightly undermanned, and the offense would have to replace a player that accounted for 70% of its offense over the past two seasons, and the receiver who accounted for 25% of his total yards.

That’s not what most would call a recipe for success.

But the thing that A&M is missing the most from Johnny Manziel is not his arms, but his legs. Through two seasons with the Aggies, Manziel rolled up over 2000 rushing yards, showcasing his ability to scramble and make something out of nothing.

He didn’t “stay in the system” as much as Hill does now, but while his tendency to recklessly take off too soon extended more plays than ruined them.

Kenny Hill doesn’t add that same element to Sumlin’s offense. Through eight games, he has 156 rushing yards, and no touchdowns on the ground. He just can’t extend plays with his legs the same way Manziel did.

And when your receivers are blanketed by cornerbacks or a blitz is right in your face, there’s no shame in tucking the rock and picking up yards with your legs.

It was inevitable that Texas A&M would be losing a lot this season, and it’s truly started to show.

And for that reason, Texas A&M’s season-opening blowout of South Carolina deceived us all.